The analysis of the political weight indexes of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the political and economic factors affecting them

International Institute of Khazar Studies (IIKSS) - Kazakhstan can be considered the country that has been at the center of attention in Central Asia in recent years, has an area of over 2700000 square kilometers and its population was 18 million in 2016. The country's political index is currently close to 1,800, which compared with the time of the founding of the Republic has increased by 6 times. The strengthening of its economic factors can be seen as the main cause of the increase in this index.

The political weight of Kazakhstan in comparison with the other republics of the Soviet Union has less perverted character and this country has a great political weight. By controlling the main demographic and economic variables and developing industry, agriculture and so on, this country has always tried to grow. Although this country since 2013 has experienced a sharp drop in this index. Considering the political weight index of this republic, which shows the process of fluctuations and changes in Kazakhstan's political weight, it is observed that this country with its territorial advantages, from separation from the Soviet Union had a good political weight. The indisputable geopolitical realities of this country retain perspective of politics and political society in Kazakhstan. Of course, Kazakhstan has lost ¼ of its political weight for 4 years and consideration of the slope of line of Kazakhstan's political weight shows that restoration of political weight of this country in 2013 year will not be possible, at least in the next 5 years. 

With the adaptation of this index with the main events in recent years, we find that the fluctuations of this index in 1998-99 years were associated with financial and economic crises in those years. This confirms how much of the current political and economic processes in Kazakhstan are influenced by the internal events in Russia. Although this trend is currently also tangible and the downward trend in Russia and Kazakhstan was similar to each other in 2014 and after 2014, but the high level of this impressionability has already decreased. In addition, the fall in the Kazakhstan's political weight index in 2001-2002 can be explained by a combination of political and economic crises, but considering the process of GDP growth, we understand that the main essence of crisis was political, because economic indexes have been rising in this year and therefore it was difficult to recognize the fact that the main essence of crisis was economic. Along with the latest issues, we can say that the security and political spheres in Kazakhstan are such that, in general, this country is politically stable and therefore the slightest change in political issues or its demographic changes affect the political economy and indexes of political weight.

Undoubtedly, the fluctuations of this index in 2008 were affected by global economic events and fluctuations, because this country is a major seller of raw materials (for example, oil, gas, minerals, etc.) in world markets and naturally imports numerous industrial products, therefore global crises have a direct impact on the economic situation of this country. In continuing the investigation of political weight, it was observed that this figure fell in 2014 and although it was expected that the downward trend will be corrected in 2016, this figure suddenly and sharply dropped. In fact, the reason for the fall of this index in 2014 can be considered fluctuations in the oil market and political and economic crisis in Russia, but we observe that the downward trend in Kazakhstan is much faster than in Russia. This coincided with the decline of the monetary base of the Cossacks compared with foreign currencies, which led to the fact that the political weight of the Cossacks significantly returned to the level of 2005. Such a process shows that Kazakhstan does not have ability to identify economic models based on growth of its population and has been satisfied only with its oil and gas resources. The result is that the economic and political situation in this country is highly fluctuating with fluctuating oil prices. 

Finally, it should be noted that the share of government weight in the political weight of Kazakhstan in 2016 was 32.90 and the share of geopolitical realities - 67.10. In other words, more than two-thirds of Kazakhstan's political and economic opportunities are related to its territorial potentials, geopolitical position and relatively low population, and if this were not so, we would certainly have seen bad economic situation and poor livelihood for the Cossacks.

The current infographic shows the trend of fluctuation in government weight in this country in recent years.

Author: Maysam Araee Daronkola - doctor of international law (Ph.D), faculty member of University and director of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS)
Translator: Mohsen Hamidi - expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, member of the Scientific Council of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS)