Fluctuations of the population and government's ability index (government weight) in the Azerbaijan Republic

International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS) - The Republic of Azerbaijan as one of the countries in the Caspian region and the Caucasus and also as Iran's northern neighbor is the most similar country to Iran in the world. The population of this republic after separation from the former Soviet Union in 1991 was about 7.5 million people who lived in the territory with an area of 86,600 square kilometers. This republic has full political and security authority over 80.85 percent of its territory. The population of this republic with staggering growth has reached 10 million people in 2016 (population growth of 20 percent). Azerbaijan was one of the few post-Soviet countries, where chronic reduction of population isn't observed. It should be noted that according to the available schedules, in the current situation, in addition to increasing the population of Azerbaijan, the number of its inactive population is also increasing and this is a danger signal for Azerbaijanis. However, Azerbaijan could keep the ratio between its active and inactive population. Of course, the number of inactive population increases since 2016 and the number of active population decreases.

Continuing population growth and also closed political structure of this republic will lead to the fact that the problem of gaps between social classes is also added to ethnic and religious gaps. In this situation, Azerbaijan’s state will have to retain the elite and influential population and abandon the other. Thus, there will be a likelihood of a demographic gap also in future generations of Azerbaijan. We can say that according to the available graphs, the growth rate of the population of this republic was stabilized after 2006 and it seems that this growth will continue with the same trend. Since the Azerbaijanis are trying to define a new Azerbaijani identity, they consider many ethnic groups as ethnic Azeris. As a result, there is no reliable statistical data on the ethnicities of this republic and most of the statistical data is based on assumptions.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has witnessed migration and racial mixing. Therefore, it is not easy to determine the ethnicity of a person in Azerbaijan. Therefore, we can assume that the Azerbaijani ethnos was formed on the basis of the Azerbaijani language, and not on the basis of the Seljuk and Azerbaijan races.

Azerbaijan is witnessing the lowest number of people of Russian origin in its territory. It means that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, firstly, the Russians have recognized that their negotiating positions are limited in the Azerbaijani-speaking population, and secondly, the Azerbaijani-speaking population was going to make clearer its demographic identity more.

Population growth in Azerbaijan is the most important factor in reducing government's weight of this republic. Since Azerbaijan is considered a country selling crude oil, this country cannot usefully use its population factor.

Author: Maysam Araee Daronkola - doctor of international law (Ph.D), faculty member of University and director of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS)
Translator: Mohsen Hamidi - expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, member of the Scientific Council of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS)