The government's ability index (government weight index - GW index) of the Russian Federation (1)

International Institute of Khazar Studies (IIKSS) – the Russian government weight has increased significantly in 2018 and was equal to 1.59%, meanwhile, the government's ability index in Russia in 2017 compared to 2016 decreased by 1.31%.

It was assumed that with continuing sanctions from the West against Russia, the government weight of this country will still decline, but we see that the government's ability index in Russia has increased under the conditions of sanctions and thanks to the increase in oil prices from $ 30 to $ 50.

Control over inflation in Russia in 2017 through contractionary fiscal policy can be seen as another reason for the growth of the Russian government weight. This led to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar.

The reasonable measures taken by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and his economic team and also rise in oil prices has made positive government weight in Russia in 2017.

With the continuation of the current trend in the global economy and with the adaptation of Russia with the sanctions imposed on it, we will probably see an increase in this index next year.

A study of the situation in Russia shows that the more attention is paid to economic factors, the higher will be the political weight of the country.

Taking into account the fact that improvement of this index was achieved due to external factors, such as oil and gas prices, the increase of this index in Russia cannot be considered as a stable factor.

The best increase in government weight will occur when this increase is achieved by increasing the active population and increasing the efficiency of population. While we don't observe it in Russia.

An important part of the government weight in Russia depends on the economic situation outside of this country and world markets and this sad fact defines two scenarios: 1) Russia will respond to demands of the international community and will cooperate with West more than before or 2) Russia will manage international events in such a way that these events ultimately will lead to an increase in the price of oil and gas or to an increase in arms sales as the two main sources of income in Russia.

The share of Russia's government weight in the entire political structure of this country has grown by 1.3%.

Author (regression analysis and preparation) - Maysam Araee Daronkola - Member of the faculty of the University Payame Noor and the director of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS), PhD of public international law
Collection of digital data: Qasim Azizi - expert and member of the Scientific Council of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS)
Translator: Mohsen Hamidi - expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, translator of Russian language and member of the Scientific Council of the International Institute of Khazar Sea Studies (IIKSS)